by Meteorologist Jeb Postle
Discussion: An area of low pressure is currently moving into the region and projected to move slightly east of Cape Cod and the islands. At the same time, a cold air mass will be moving into the region from Canada. As the storm intensifies off the coast of the northeast, colder air will be drawn into the region. However, the critical question is how long it will take the cold air to move down to the surface. Right now, I am thinking the transition of rain to snow will take a little bit longer as temperatures aloft will be warm enough to provide a wintry mix of rain and snow instead of all snow for Upton during the afternoon. As the evening approaches, enough cold air will be found to allow for snow to occur.
The storm will begin to move out of the area Wednesday evening. On the heels of the storm, a weak disturbance will move in from the west on Thanksgiving, providing mostly cloudy skies and a slight chance of snow showers during the afternoon and evening. As the weak disturbance moves out the region, this will usher in even more colder temperatures.
Forecast Timeline:
Today: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain will moving into the area between 6-10 A.M. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s during this time. Between 9-12 A.M., wet snow will begin to mix in with the rain. This will continue through early afternoon, as air temperatures will remain in the mid 30s. Roughly between 2-5 P.M., A transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow will occur. During this time, a light ice accretion and snow-sleet accumulation up to 1” is possible. High temperature around 38F in the morning, then dropping to around 32F by 5 P.M. Winds from the north-northeast at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts possible.
Wednesday Night: Periods of wet snow and sleet mixed in, heavy at times roughly between 5-10 P.M. Temperatures will be at or slightly below freezing during this time. Between 10 P.M.-1 A.M, the snow will begin to taper and move out of the area. Snow and sleet accumulation between 3-6” expected. Low temperature around 30F. Winds from the Northwest at 5-10 mph.
Thanksgiving: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon and evening. Little to no snow accumulation expected. High temperatures around 33F. Winds from the Northwest at 5-10 mph.
Snowfall prediction: 4-7 Inches of snow, with a coating of ice.
Impacts: If you have to go anywhere tomorrow, the best time to do so is before noon as temperatures will be above freezing and mostly rain will be falling. In the afternoon, it will be a different story. As temperatures hover or drop to freezing by late afternoon, roadways will start to become treacherous. With a wintry mix occurring and daylight fading, it will allow for ice and slush to begin accumulating on roadways. Also. The heaviest precipitation will begin to move into the area during this time. In the evening, roadways will be the worst as heavy wet snow and sleet will be falling. With that and temperatures at or slightly below freezing, ice and slushy snow will easily accumulate on roadways.
Travel conditions should dramatically improve on Thanksgiving Day, as mostly dry conditions will be found for much of the day. There may be slight chance of snow showers, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.
Additional, there could be a risk of some power outages from a combination of heavy wet snow and winds on tree branches and power lines.
Notes: There is still a lot of uncertainty as to how much snow will fall from this storm as the track is not certain and as to how fast the cold air will move in to change the rain over to all snow. If anyone has any weather related questions, feel free to contact myself at postle@gmail.com
Happy Thanksgiving and stay warm!
UPTON DAILY 