by Meteorologist Jeb Postle
Alerts: The National Weather Service has issued a Blizzard Warning from 7 P.M. Tomorrow to 1 A.M. Wednesday for a combination of heavy snow and blizzard conditions.
Overview: A disturbance (Alberta Clipper) is currently moving through the Ohio River Valley. As this disturbance moves to the east this evening, a surface low will develop off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia. The coastal low will strengthen as it moves north, thanks to the transfer of energy from disturbance to the west and the jet stream. A process called cyclogenesis; process of a cyclone or storm strengthening will take place off the coast of the northeast. At the same time, a strong ridge of high pressure over the province of Quebec will provide the cold air in place for the storm. The combination of a strong area of high pressure and coastal low will result in a strong gradient being found over the region. This will is result in the gusty winds over the region.
- Blizzard conditions will result from a combination of heavy snow and winds.
- A blizzard is defined as a frequent sustained winds or gusts of at least 35 mph producing visibilities of less than ¼ miles for at least 3 hours or longer.
- The storm will move out the region early Wednesday morning, as a ridge of high pressure will build in from the southwest.
Forecast-Timeline
Monday, January 26th: Morning sun will give way to afternoon clouds. Periods of snow moving in between 3-6 P.M. Snowfall amounts less than 1”. High temperature around 19F. Winds from the north-northeast at 5-10 mph.
Monday Night: Mostly with snow developing between 5-8 PM. Periods of moderate to heavy snow. Snowfall amounts between 12-17“. Low temperature around 17F. Winds from the northeast at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts likely.
Tuesday, January 27th: Mostly cloudy with periods of moderate to heavy snow in the morning. Periods of light to moderate snow in the afternoon. Snowfall amounts between 6-10”. High temperature around 19F. Winds from the north-northeast at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts above 30 mph possible.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with periods of light to moderate snow ending between 2-5 A.M. Snowfall amounts between 1-3”. Low temperature around 12F. Winds from the north-northwest at 15-25 mph, with winds gust above 30 mph possible.
Wednesday, January 28th: Morning clouds will give way to breaks of sun in the afternoon. High temperature around 22F. Winds from the north-northeast at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts likely.
Impacts: This storm will have similar impacts to our last big snow storm-blizzard back in February 2013. I expect roads to become impassible from late Monday evening into Wednesday evening. With this said, schools and businesses will likely be closed all day Tuesday. Also, there may be lingering delays on Wednesday morning from the cleanup of this storm.
As for the timing, the worst of the storm looks to occur from late Monday evening through midday Tuesday. Snowfall rates of over 1” per hour and gusty winds producing near whiteout conditions are likely during this time. During Tuesday afternoon and night, snowfall rates will begin to lighten up. This will allow for road crews to gain an advantage on clearing the roads. However, the winds will remain gusty. With the snow expected to be fluffy, this may lead to possible drifting and blowing of snow on roadways.
Note: There still remains a lot of uncertainty with the nature of this upcoming storm. The largest being where the heavy snow bands set up. As of now, the area looks to be on the edge of the heavy snow bands. If this holds true, snowfall amounts may be around or exceed 2 feet. If the snow bands set up farther to our north and west, then snowfall amounts between 1-2 feet are likely. As always, stay tuned as I will give another update by tomorrow morning. If anyone has any specific questions, feel free to email me at postle@gmail.com
UPTON DAILY 